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In the recently concluded 1Q2012 reporting season, a similar  number of companies under our coverage underperformed, at 31% versus 32% in 4Q2011 and  34% in 3Q2011. The percentage of companies that outperformed fell to 14%  from 17% in the  previous quarter (see Fig 1) and 15% in 3Q2011. Surprisingly, there were more earnings  letdowns among the big caps , with 27% missing estimates versus 17% in the preceding quarter  while among the small caps, more companies trumped estimates - at 20% - compared with 12%  in 4Q2011. The notable positive surprises among the big caps were Maybank and JCY while the  negatives were from MAS, the Genting Group and MISC. Steel, plantations and oil & gas disappointed. The steel, plantations and oil & gas sectors were  dogged  by industry-specific issues and the macro-economic environment. Most steel  companies that we cover continued to be mired in losses due to weaker selling prices and high...

Lackluster global markets. The Malaysian market sputtered in April after hitting a  record close of 1606.63pts early in the month. It then trended downwards together with most global markets, as political uncertainties in Europe sapped the strength of markets worldwide in the first half of the month, while political uncertainties at home dampened the KLCI in the second half of the month. This was indeed as per our expectations. Outlook: Sell in May and Go Away? We investigated the historical index performance over the months of May–Sept and Oct–April for the US and for Malaysia, Jakarta and Hong Kong to try and determine if there was any truth to the old adage. Analysis indicates that over the past 52 years in the US and 22 years in Asia, markets do indeed under-perform more during the months of May–Sept as compared to Oct–April, with the KLCI surprisingly emerging as a high beta market compared to the other three markets. What goes up ...

While Malaysia remained a laggard compared to the rally in developed markets, the global rally that had started in January finally dragged the local bourse kicking and screaming up during February with a rally of more than 3%. Globally, markets continued to rise despite the patchy fundamental landscape. Thus, while we had anticipated a potential rally in the 1st half of February, our expected market retraction in the 2nd half failed to materialize. Top Gainers for February were dividend plays such as Carlsberg or companies with corporate activities such as Hartalega with its bonus issue or potential targets such as RHB Cap and MBSB. Smaller plantation companies such as TH Plantations and RImbunan Sawit also had a good run. On the flip side, companies with poor results such as Maybulk, MAS and KNM got sold down. On a broader sectoral basis, telcos were the dominant play. It was the return of the Big Caps in February as the catc...

Global Rally ex Malaysia. While global markets rallied in Jan 2012 to post their best January performance since 1994, Malaysia languished as an exception among all the major markets in East Asia, thus strangely validating our Sell call on the Malaysian market in January. Globally, the economic outlook in the US remained stable with 66% of companies that reported earnings thus far beating estimates. While the situation was different in Europe with the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) losing its AAA rating with S&P, nonetheless, the slush of liquidity unveiled by the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) allowed European markets to rally accordingly as bond yields in Italy declined dramatically. Takeover spare continues . While December saw the privatization offers for KFC, QSR and YTL Cement as well as rumours of Proton’s stake sale by Khazanah, January saw more of the same including: DRB-Hicom acquiring Khazanah’s 42.7% stake in Proton fo...

OSK have a Neutral outlook on the Malaysian market going into 2012 as the combination of uncertain growth outlook in the US and Asia coupled with a possible recession in Europe cloud the prospects for strong earnings growth locally. While Malaysia is likely to avoid slipping into recession, the deficit reduction exercises undertaken by Eurozone economies may well tip their slow growing economies into a recession. In any case, for Malaysia, OSK see earnings growth slipping to between mid single digits and low double digits, a pale shadow of what it was in 2006, 2007 and 2010 when earnings growth came in between 20 to 30%. Newsflow on developments surrounding the handling of sovereign debt in Europe and US will also likely to lead to volatile markets worldwide. As such, in the short term, we are faced with volatile markets which will likely give way to a dampened economic outlook. OSK advise investors stay cautious into mid 2012 and focus on Defensive sectors such as Consumer, Telco, H...

Essentially, with the uncertainties in Europe continuing amid a potential global slowdown in the economy, we will continue to see market volatility in the next few months. As such, we continue to advise investors to be patient and focus on Defensive counters , while looking out for opportunities to Trade. We continue to advocate Buying into Weakness when the KLCI falls towards the 1,300-pt level, focusing on Banks, O&G and Construction stocks while we advocate Selling into Strength on the same three sectors when the market rallies towards 1,500 pts. Festive Cheer in December? While we remain fairly defensive over the mid term, December may still be a bright spot amid the gloom. There is still a possibility of the traditional year-end rally and the just announced joint effort by various central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Canada to provide liquidity may just convin...

While fears of an European sovereign debt default reverberating worldwide, Malaysia quietly outperformed most of the world in June as the Banking sector led the KLCI higher after the potential M&A of RHB Cap was called off . We had expected the KLCI to trend higher led by banks but our hope was founded on potential excitement driven by the merger rather than on sighs of relief that there would be no overpaying for RHB Cap. OSK Research: Top Gainers and Losers of FBM 100 during the month of June 2011. July looks to be a Strategist’s fantasy? With numerous announcements related to economic reform and infrastructure developments lined up for July, namely: 1 July – The launch of the ETP River of Life project involving the rehabilitation of the Klang River; 5 July – The 7th ETP update during which the PM will also unveil PEMANDU’s efforts to classify some 37 policy change recommendations made in the NEM into 6 Strategic Reform Initiative (SRI) clusters that will signal real economic...

The KLCI performed as expected as a reasonable stream of results provided a stable floor while strong news flow drove up Bigger Caps. For June, while the 4 upcoming IPOs and the KLCI review may draw some attention, OSK believe all eyes will be on the potential tussle between CIMB and Maybank over the control of RHB Cap. OSK Research Outlook: Possibly not as quiet as expected With a total of 4 IPOs going for listing in June and July, it was expected that the market to be somewhat quiet as investors stored away funds to subscribe to the IPOs or buy into them when traded. Despite concerns that the amount of funds raised by the 4 IPOs, namely UOA Development, MSM Malaysia, Axis International REIT and Bumi Armada, would suck the liquidity out of the market, but the amount of funds (RM7.7bn) is far less than that raised in 2010 with the listing of MMHE and Petronas Chemicals (RM14bn). Thus, there should not be much of an issue on the liquidity of the market post the 4 IPOs. Funds to be ra...

After being hit by a few Black Swan events, markets rebounded in March with the KLCI ending 1Q in the black. Moving into 2Q, we still see some short term volatility but are confident of an eventual rally to close in on our year-end KLCI target of 1680 points. We advise investors BUY Big Caps on potential rebounds while focusing on the more defensive Small Caps given their superior performance over the past few months. The favorite sectors remain Banks, O&G, Property and Construction in the mid-to-short term while the longer term buys are Media and Healthcare. This strategy is reflected in our April top buys as well. Timber the BIG winner... For March, timber stocks were actually the big winners, including names such as Suber Tiasa, Jaya Tiasa, TaAnn, WTK and Lingui, on hopes for better timber demand in view of reconstruction efforts in Japan. Nonetheless, these counters are not part of the FBM100. Instead, among the FBM100 constituents, media player Media Chinese and Petronas compa...

By OSK Research, Despite relatively strong results from a number of Blue Chips in February, the market still retreated and ended up in the red so far in 2011. Selling was largely attributed to concerns arising from political unrest in the Middle East although we continue to see limited risk if this does not spread to Saudi Arabia. Go out and BUY? Trading Strategy - Buy on Weakness OSK continue to advise investors to Buy on Weakness in the current volatile market with focus on Banks, especially those that have been sold down recently as we still see robust loans growth of 8.5%. OSK also advise trading in Oil & Gas , Construction and Property counters as the news flow should remain good although they caution that profits will likely to kick in only in 2H of 2011. March 2011 Top Buys OSK's top buys did poorly for February, with only 2 stocks matching or exceeding the KLCI namely KPJ and Kencana. For March, as we remain hopeful of a market rebound, we are keeping CIMB , Kencana an...

Financial Daily recently reported that Maybank is going to take-over OSK Holdings Bhd as Maybank was said to be continuously seeking opportunities. Although, both Maybank and OSK reply to Bursa Malaysia's query, both parties have neither denied nor confirmed the opportunities. And now, let us look at the possible acquisition. What makes OSK attractive? Good track record of rapid growth, which offers a wide spectrum of financial, advisory and investment services. Already operating in Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai. One of the pioneers in local broking industry with 450 remisiers and 300 company dealer's. What's in-store for Maybank? Maybank had explicitly wanted to expand regionally, especially on investment banking services. Regional equities broking was always in Maybank's radar. And, main weakness of Maybank now was its fund management arm, in which, OSK is famous of. If this is true, Maybank is heading in a right direction, by ' eating ' OSK, t...

Following the US government pump priming efforts during the global financial crisis, OSK-UOB believe that we are now witnessing the US economy being stabilized and poised for economic recovery albeit at its early stage. Henceforth, they offer investors a US-focused equity fund to capitalize on the US economic recovery. Tag-line: " It is PRIME time to up your STAKES " This is a feeder fund that will invest principally in Schroder International Selection Fund US Small & Mid-Cap Equity (launched on 10/12/2004), which invests primarily in equity securities of smaller and medium-sized US companies. Those are the US companies which, at the time of purchase, form the bottom 40% by market capitalization of the US market. Key Summary Fund category           : Feeder Fund Fund type                 : Growth Initial offering period : 15th Oct - 4 Nov 2010 Initia...

With the Asian economies leading in the run up to the global economic recovery, it is expected that the gaming and hospitality sector in Asia would be positioned for growth. Supported by a stead fast growing population and rising income, the gaming and hospitality sector in Asia is thus expected to flourish. On such expectation OSK-UOB offer investor a new fund that will seek to capitalize on the expected growth of this sector in the Asian region, particularly in Macau and Singapore whilst protecting* investors' capital. This is a 4-year close-ended capital protected* fund which aim to provide regular income over the medium term whilst protecting investors' capital* on the maturity date. This fund is suitable for investors who: have a low risk tolerance; seek capital protection*; share our view on the growth potential of the Asian gaming and hospitality sector during the run up to the world economic recovery; have a medium term horizon (4-year); seek regular income Offer Peri...

OSK-UOB Unit Trust Management Bhd: Following the stabilisation of the global economies after the global financial crisis, we have seen a significant recovery in prices of hard commodities (such as base metal (e.g. copper, aluminum), bulk commodities (e.g. coal, iron ore) and precious metal (gold, silver)). Whilst we do not necessarily expect the same rate of price increase going forward, it is our expectation that such commodity prices are likely to remain well supported from demand growth , particularly from the emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil as well as the western world coupled with supply side constraints which should underpin these commodity prices over the coming years. OSK-UOB Capital Protected* World Mining Fund (CPWMF) is a 4 -year closed-end capital protected fund which aims to provide capital appreciation over the medium term whilst protecting investors’ capital on the Maturity Date. CPWMF is suitable for investors who: have a low risk tolerance; se...

OSK-UOB Unit Trust Management Bhd is launching a new fund on 11th March 2010. The fund will capitalise on the potential growth of world's two largest emerging countries. With a spectacular GDP growth of 8-10% per annum, China and India poised to lead the world's economy out of recession. China and India now ranked as world's 2nd and 4th largest economy respectively, and will outpace Japan in the next few years. Among the key selling points of the fund are: Rapid urbanisation Great domestic consumption demand Sustainability of strong GDP growth This is a high risk, high return fund, with portfolio allocation of 60%-40% between the two countries. UOB asset management will manage the China portfolio, while, UTI International (Singapore) is the sub-manager for India portfolio of the fund.