leftright-investment

* Note: This is NOT a political post. Instead, we're talking about share market movement based on possible election outcome. Abusive comments are strictly prohibited and will be remove automatically. Local investors have been staying sideline for months ago. Do you started to feel itchy now? Honestly, this is the feeling of mine as an investor, from being active to passive lately. I can't wait to start investing again in share market. However, we shouldn't simply jump in next Monday, right? Let's see the 3 possible election outcome and how market may react accordingly... OUTCOME #1: BN retained power Judging by the strong influx of foreign funds flooding local share market prior to election, this is definitely their expected outcome. If materialize, Monday market generally will rally. However, I expect this kind of rally will be short-lived , and turning downward after that. Why? Simply ask yourself these questions: When is the better time to take profit if not that tim...

Are you bored of the recent elections hoo-haa ? It's all coming from either party from different side, some NGOs, and some political related persons. How about foreigners? What are they thinking about our Malaysia General Election? Here you go... In this note, Morgan Stanley outline the 5 things they think investors need to know regarding Malaysia elections: What's upcoming? Setting the context The 13th General Elections are due to be held very soon in Malayia. Parliament needs to be dissolved no later than April 2013, and elections need to be held no later than 60 days from date of its dissolution. Which are the key states to monitor? They are Kedah, Penang, Selangor, Perak, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak. Election scenarios and macro implications BN Parliamentary seat share of > 63% would be seen as a positive surprise for investors. BN Parliamentary seat share of < mid 50% would be seen as a negative risk event by investors and could have implications for leadership and gove...

There is no better time to blog about this post. After the plunge of KLCI yesterday, citing election risk, we came across an interesting research report by CLSA. As such, we would like to take this opportunity to share with you. By CLSA, An unexpected opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition victory in the impending 13th General Election (13GE) would spark a broad sell-off in Ringgit assets . Changes of government are not uncommon in ASEAN. Looking at the experience of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines over the last decade, parliamentary control has seen significant shifts and governance has been possible despite the lack of a parliamentary majority. However, Malaysia has never experienced a change in government, meaning any change will come as a shock and with a host of uncertainties. From an equity and debt market perspective , Malaysia has always enjoyed a political premium for the stability in governance and policy-setting stemming from majority control of parliament...

I am writing this post during midnight after I came across a report saying that Bank Islam chief economist suspended after predicting that opposition will win the upcoming election. As usual, Finance Malaysia would NOT include political elements in its blog post. And, we would like to stress here again, that we are discussing this topic WITHOUT any political elements. Then, what are we talking here? FREEDOM of VOICE & OPINION I knew that I could not sleep if I didn't speak up for En. Azrul Anwar. We are not here to defend anyone, neither to offend any parties. But, we should open up our mind, and accept other opinions with open heart. In this matter, the said bank is losing its credibility and reputation by suspending one of its key staff --- just because of his prediction. Why can't he speak freely? Will the bank lose its banking license because of this? Does he answer the question wrongly? NO... It's a prediction only, there is no right or wrong here. Everyone knew t...

When everyone thought that US and the world will be better if Obama won his presidential re-election again, world equities markets today declines with US being the most serious market by dropping more than 2%. What's the reason? Answer: Fiscal Cliff  ? Hmmm... Then, what is fiscal cliff actually which many of us on the street do not even heard about this new term before. No worry, Finance Malaysia blog did his homework over here. Share this out if you like. Understanding Fiscal Cliff... The US fiscal cliff refers to the effect of a series of enacted legislation which, if unchanged, will result in tax increases, spending cuts, and a corresponding reduction in the budget deficit. With Obama retaining the presidency, it sends the signal that it's US government policies will pretty much stay the same as previous 4 years. Ben Bernanke will stay as Fed chairman, which also meaning that the open-ended liquidity and bond buying programs will continue, fueling risk taking appetite of e...

First of all, Happy Merdeka to all Malaysians. Yup, we love peace and prosperity as mentioned by our beloved prime minister. 55th years of independence would not come true without unity of people from various races. No doubt, we Malaysians are from various background. Yet, we have come together, good or bad, to shape our nation until what we already achieve today. Anyway, Finance Malaysia hopes our nation can transform itself by realizing the 2020 vision "Developed Nation". Just when everyone was celebrating today, I came across one news titled " Mat Rempit to help fight crime " and my writing instinct once again being activated. Fighting crime by collaborating with Mat Rempit? This is the first reaction I believed many readers would asked!!! Don't we know that Mat Rempit were those who rides their motorcycle dangerously? Don't we know that Mat Rempit were those riders that endangered the life of other road users? And, I really don't know how and why our...

Once again, PTPTN (Malaysia National Higher Education Loan) came to the limelight lately with the wrong reasons. In conjunction with this, Finance Malaysia did a survey on Facebook Page asking our fans "Should Government Abolish PTPTN Loans?", and guess the answer given by majority of them? NO . Emmm... What does this mean? It's pretty clear that majority of us thinks that PTPTN should be continue for the following reasons: There is no FREE lunch in this world Borrowers should repay what he borrows The scheme did already help many financially distressed students pursuing tertiary education Thanks for your participation in the survey. Yet, many readers keep asking Finance Malaysia, our view on this matter. Before answering you, we also highlighted that this blog is of freedom of speech, we're not political driven blog, and we tend to be political-neutral in writing. Below is our view on this issue: We agreed that there is no free lunch, especially in Malaysia. We shou...

2011 had triggered a wave of unwanted chain effects, which would not languish but resonate further into 1H12. While Japan is recovering from the worst ever tsunami and nuclear disaster, and oil prices stabilized after the unrest in the Middle East, conditions in Europe are expected to worsen before stabilizing. Global Economy – Risk Factors Extending into 2012 Positive news flows on drastic measures to restore confidence in Europe and maintain the credit ratings of core economies could boost market sentiment in early 1Q12 and push the index to test the all‐time high of 1,597. However, the reality check on the implication of European austerity measures and rising market risk premium due to the 13th General Election (GE) could push the index around 1,200 levels in 1H12 based on a minus two standard deviation from its last decade’s historical mean of 16.6x. A revival should ensue in the following months due to oversold conditions and anticipation of a subseque...

In Malaysia, we can see a lot of businesses being conducted by state government. Should there be a limit to the extent that state government should involved in? Yes, we know that the state also need money to run their administrations daily operations expenses. But, would it be wise to collect revenue generated by businesses in the state, instead of relying of its own businesses? Well, doing businesses by state government itself can generate more revenue. This is the case only if the businesses were run successfully and making profits. Otherwise, the businesses' losses were barred by rakyat themselves. Why we only highlight State Government? Simply because most of the state government is making losses. In fact, only one state is making profit and still it is highly indebted. By going back to history, we know how that state wrest control of one reputable fast-food chain business, which became its cash-cow now. Then, the money from this cash-cow is spinning around within the group. ...

Coming this Saturday, 16th April 2011, the Sarawak state elections will be held and Malaysians will be watching closely on the outcome. Of course, I do not know the outcome yet. In fact, I am afraid to predict it, as the " not so good " result will jeopardize my share investments. I am not a Sarawakian either, what should I gauge against? As Chinese said, outsiders tends to be clearer than insiders. As such, Finance Malaysia refer to the following article taken from Credit Suisse as a reference, a view from foreigners. BN's 'fixed deposit' will be put to test? The Sarawak state elections will be a key barometer for Prime Minister Najib to gauge the support for Malaysians for the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN). While previous state elections were seen to be non-events, as Sarawak has always been BN stronghold, these particular polls will likely be the most hotly contested. This round, for BN to lose the 2/3 majority, it will need to lose 24 seats or an additional ...

As usual, another episodes of tension in the Middle East pushes global oil prices higher, and surpassing $100 per barrel this time. We did seen this kind of scenario before in the Middle East during 1973-74, 1979, and the Iraq war in 1990. Are there any different this time? Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi By Credit Suisse ,  We believe the rise in oil prices is manageable . Each 10% rise in oil prices only takes about 0.1% off global GDP and 0.2% off US growth. With Western wage growth muted, central banks are unlikely to raise rates on account of oil alone. Our analysts see oil prices below $100 pb this year, supported by the following reason which differs from previous oil crisis:- There is enough spare capacity in the global oil market to deal with supply-side disruptions as long as they are not too extreme The energy intensity of global GDP has fallen by around 40% over the past 40 years There is unlikely to be the same inflationary follow-through as in the 1970s Oil producer...

Even before the much awaited general election, our universities under-graduates are up for the upcoming campus elections. Candidates are going all out, day and night, to campaign for votes for the past few days. Election will be held from Feb 21 to Feb 24. News excerpt from The Star newspaper (17 Feb 2011) Successfully, every year, campus election which initially meant for universities only, got the attention of public and full coverage from major dailies. Malaysian is like watching European Cup (campus election), prior to the more important FIFA World Cup (general election). Meanwhile, politician tends to monitor the progress of the campus elections for various reasons: Read the minds of undergraduates Identify the potential future politicians Predicting the youth trends on politics Penggerak Mahasiswa or Pro-Mahasiswa? Not surprisingly, campus elections are heated up once again this year. As a graduate from one of Malaysia's public university, it reminded me on campus election. t...