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By TA Securities, We believe 1H13 will be a choppy period and election concerns could drag down the FBM KLCI by 8% to 10% in the period before market rebounds in the 2H13. The impetus for revival will mainly hinge on the end of election overhang and strong domestic demand. Sustained monetary easing on the back of low inflationary pressure and attempts to reduce budget deficits by cutting subsidies and channeling the savings to productive ventures are positive despite the short-term impact on earnings. Overall, domestic economy will play an integral role in sustaining confidence in domestic equities next year in the absence of any overwhelming micro drivers. Corporate earnings for 9M12 were less robust and we forecast full year earnings growth for the FBM KLCI to be 9.4% only. Chances of a strong revival in the immediate-term are minimal based on external sentiment and dwindling demand in key export markets. Our earnings growth forecast of 8% and 8.4% for CY13 and CY14 is not compelling...

RHB research institute (RHBRI) is of the view that it could still be a choppy few months for the equity market in the 4Q given weakening economic fundamentals in the major world economies and fears of an imminent general election on the home front. Whilst more rounds of quantitative easing have been unveiled in the developed world, the big question in investors’ minds is how all these quantitative easing measures will translate to better global economic outlook. Having said that, equity still stands up vis-a-vis the unappealing returns of the alternative asset classes, such as cash and bonds and any good news is still likely to prompt a rally in equities. How was Malaysia fared? And, what's the strategy now? Thus far, Malaysia has fared relatively well in the global financial crisis, and this is partly on account of low reliance on foreign funding of its banking system and more importantly, the progress in the implementation of the Econ...

Given the persistent headwinds from the external sector and general election overhang on the home front, we are of  the view that the market will likely be stuck in a range-bound trading pattern in the 4Q. Consequently, we believe  investors would still need to accumulate fundamentally-robust stocks on weakness in order to outperform the  market, while staying defensive on the core holdings will provide greater stability to the portfolio performance. In  addition, as the search for yield will likely remain a key driver for both retail and institutional investors in the 4Q, high  divided-yielding stocks will also continue to outperform the market, in our view. A list of our top picks is reflected in t able below, which includes “buy on weakness” tactical stocks. Which Sector to look at? Sector-wise, our key overweights are telecommunications and banking , although we also have an overweight stance on the consumer, utilities, gaming and rubber gloves unde...

Lackluster global markets. The Malaysian market sputtered in April after hitting a  record close of 1606.63pts early in the month. It then trended downwards together with most global markets, as political uncertainties in Europe sapped the strength of markets worldwide in the first half of the month, while political uncertainties at home dampened the KLCI in the second half of the month. This was indeed as per our expectations. Outlook: Sell in May and Go Away? We investigated the historical index performance over the months of May–Sept and Oct–April for the US and for Malaysia, Jakarta and Hong Kong to try and determine if there was any truth to the old adage. Analysis indicates that over the past 52 years in the US and 22 years in Asia, markets do indeed under-perform more during the months of May–Sept as compared to Oct–April, with the KLCI surprisingly emerging as a high beta market compared to the other three markets. What goes up ...

More Signs of Recovery The tail risk from the euro-debt crisis has subsided after ECB opens its liquidity floodgates. Elsewhere, more signs of economic stabilization and recovery have emerged, particularly in the US. As the global economic recovery gains momentum, external demand for Malaysia’s exports will likely improve as the year progresses. Domestically, consumer spending remains resilient, which will be reinforced by the progress in the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme to sustain growth. We envisage the country’s economy to grow at 4.5% in 2012, albeit at a more moderate pace than the +5.1% achieved in 2011. This will underpin corporate earnings growth, projected at +12.2% and +7.9% for 2012 and 2013, respectively (+8.7% and +7.0% ex-Tenaga). But, anticipate a short-term market pullback ? Notwithstanding improvements in the global economy, we continue to expect a market pullback and consolidation in the 2Q. I...

The global economy grew at a more moderate pace in 2011 after the strong rebound in 2010. The growth momentum was weighed down by continued structural weaknesses and fiscal issues in the advanced economies, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and North Africa region and the disruptive impact of natural disasters on global manufacturing production. These developments reverberated onto international financial markets and contributed to heightened market volatility throughout the year. Despite the less favourable external environment, emerging economies continued to record firm domestic-driven economic growth. At the same time, emerging economies faced increasing challenges from volatile capital flows and rising inflationary pressures. Amidst this environment, the Malaysian economy continued to grow steadily underpinned by the expansion in domestic activity and firm regional demand. The Malaysian Economy in 2011 The Malaysian economy recorded a steady pace of growth of 5.1% in ...

While Malaysia remained a laggard compared to the rally in developed markets, the global rally that had started in January finally dragged the local bourse kicking and screaming up during February with a rally of more than 3%. Globally, markets continued to rise despite the patchy fundamental landscape. Thus, while we had anticipated a potential rally in the 1st half of February, our expected market retraction in the 2nd half failed to materialize. Top Gainers for February were dividend plays such as Carlsberg or companies with corporate activities such as Hartalega with its bonus issue or potential targets such as RHB Cap and MBSB. Smaller plantation companies such as TH Plantations and RImbunan Sawit also had a good run. On the flip side, companies with poor results such as Maybulk, MAS and KNM got sold down. On a broader sectoral basis, telcos were the dominant play. It was the return of the Big Caps in February as the catc...

In conjunction with the coming Chinese New Year, Finance Malaysia would like to bring to you another popular research report - funny and interesting - by CLSA. This year is called " Water Dragon " year. Is it a good or bad dragon? What does water means to this dragon? And most importantly, what's the predictions of markets from the angle of feng shui? Prediction pattern patent pending Past performance, as the tiny type whispers, is no guarantee of future behavior. After all, it may be no guarantee, but it's pretty much all we've got to go on. No matter how mathematically marvelous the model, how impossibly rational the behavior or how serial the killer instinct, not too far beyond the smirk and mirrors, precedent is invariably at play. That the past is present in the future is fundamental to feng shui forecasting, which is why we slipped on the archaeological geomancy fancy-pants and took the pith helmets to pore over the charted remains of the most re...

After looking into all those research reports on 2012 market outlook by local securities or research houses, it's time for foreign research houses. In this series of 2012 outlook, we kick start with Credit Suisse 's report, in which a section of it was written specifically on Malaysia. And, below is the excerpt from it. Malaysia’s GDP growth to outperform its regional peers'? Real GDP growth expanded 5.8% yoy in Q3, led by strong private consumption (7.4% yoy) and fixed investment (6.1% yoy), and a surge in government consumption (21.8% yoy). On a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that GDP expanded 4.6% qoq annualized in Q3, stronger than that of Korea, Thailand, Singapore, the  Philippines, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Malaysia remains highly exposed to a sharp slowdown in the developed world, but, on a relative basis, we think its domestic demand will hold up better than that of the other small open economies in the region. We expect private consumpt...

2011 had triggered a wave of unwanted chain effects, which would not languish but resonate further into 1H12. While Japan is recovering from the worst ever tsunami and nuclear disaster, and oil prices stabilized after the unrest in the Middle East, conditions in Europe are expected to worsen before stabilizing. Global Economy – Risk Factors Extending into 2012 Positive news flows on drastic measures to restore confidence in Europe and maintain the credit ratings of core economies could boost market sentiment in early 1Q12 and push the index to test the all‐time high of 1,597. However, the reality check on the implication of European austerity measures and rising market risk premium due to the 13th General Election (GE) could push the index around 1,200 levels in 1H12 based on a minus two standard deviation from its last decade’s historical mean of 16.6x. A revival should ensue in the following months due to oversold conditions and anticipation of a subseque...

2012 will be another volatile year, we expect, tracking closely headline news from abroad given unresolved macro conditions brought forth from 2011: high debts but low growth at the eurozone and US. Confidence continues to wane on a resolution to the debt crisis which is negative on sentiment and will destabilize growth. We maintain our 2012 year-end KLCI target of 1,500 pts based on one standard deviation below mean on expectation of turbulence still at the external markets impacting sentiment and global growth. At the home front, it will be a year with potentially two major elections: an early 13th general elections (13GE) and UMNO party elections for the top posts in 4Q 2012, where the elected party president will helm the country’s premiership position Air Pockets Ahead? That eurozone’s debt crisis has stayed unresolved means that there is still default risk. We expect higher bouts of volatility in 1H 2012 where ...

As we head into 2012, a lot of uncertainty remains. On the external front, the euro-debt crisis remains unresolved despite five major attempts to stabilise it. Meanwhile, the economic conditions in the Eurozone are deteriorating rapidly with major indicators pointing to the region entering a recession. A deeper-than-expected recession in the Eurozone would leave few countries unscathed. In particular, the US economy, which is still in low gear, will likely be severely impacted, while China may also be in for a more severe downturn as effects of potential policy easing will take time to filter down to the real economy. Slower Eonomic Growth Envisaged For 2012? The Malaysian economy will not be spared and will likely experience slowing export growth, though this will be cushioned by resilient domestic demand given the progress in the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme. We expect the country’s economic growth to slow do...