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General Election is coming. One of the hotly debated topic would be the escalating house prices and the needs to provide more affordable houses to Rakyat. In line with that, iProperty.com has done a survey on " The 13th General Elections and the property market " with 2275 Malaysians respondents. What did they said? Created by Iproperty MY , the number one website in Malaysia. Whether you have a house for sale or are looking to buy.

* Note: This is NOT a political post. Instead, we're talking about share market movement based on possible election outcome. Abusive comments are strictly prohibited and will be remove automatically. Local investors have been staying sideline for months ago. Do you started to feel itchy now? Honestly, this is the feeling of mine as an investor, from being active to passive lately. I can't wait to start investing again in share market. However, we shouldn't simply jump in next Monday, right? Let's see the 3 possible election outcome and how market may react accordingly... OUTCOME #1: BN retained power Judging by the strong influx of foreign funds flooding local share market prior to election, this is definitely their expected outcome. If materialize, Monday market generally will rally. However, I expect this kind of rally will be short-lived , and turning downward after that. Why? Simply ask yourself these questions: When is the better time to take profit if not that tim...

Are you bored of the recent elections hoo-haa ? It's all coming from either party from different side, some NGOs, and some political related persons. How about foreigners? What are they thinking about our Malaysia General Election? Here you go... In this note, Morgan Stanley outline the 5 things they think investors need to know regarding Malaysia elections: What's upcoming? Setting the context The 13th General Elections are due to be held very soon in Malayia. Parliament needs to be dissolved no later than April 2013, and elections need to be held no later than 60 days from date of its dissolution. Which are the key states to monitor? They are Kedah, Penang, Selangor, Perak, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak. Election scenarios and macro implications BN Parliamentary seat share of > 63% would be seen as a positive surprise for investors. BN Parliamentary seat share of < mid 50% would be seen as a negative risk event by investors and could have implications for leadership and gove...

There is no better time to blog about this post. After the plunge of KLCI yesterday, citing election risk, we came across an interesting research report by CLSA. As such, we would like to take this opportunity to share with you. By CLSA, An unexpected opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition victory in the impending 13th General Election (13GE) would spark a broad sell-off in Ringgit assets . Changes of government are not uncommon in ASEAN. Looking at the experience of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines over the last decade, parliamentary control has seen significant shifts and governance has been possible despite the lack of a parliamentary majority. However, Malaysia has never experienced a change in government, meaning any change will come as a shock and with a host of uncertainties. From an equity and debt market perspective , Malaysia has always enjoyed a political premium for the stability in governance and policy-setting stemming from majority control of parliament...

By TA Securities, We believe 1H13 will be a choppy period and election concerns could drag down the FBM KLCI by 8% to 10% in the period before market rebounds in the 2H13. The impetus for revival will mainly hinge on the end of election overhang and strong domestic demand. Sustained monetary easing on the back of low inflationary pressure and attempts to reduce budget deficits by cutting subsidies and channeling the savings to productive ventures are positive despite the short-term impact on earnings. Overall, domestic economy will play an integral role in sustaining confidence in domestic equities next year in the absence of any overwhelming micro drivers. Corporate earnings for 9M12 were less robust and we forecast full year earnings growth for the FBM KLCI to be 9.4% only. Chances of a strong revival in the immediate-term are minimal based on external sentiment and dwindling demand in key export markets. Our earnings growth forecast of 8% and 8.4% for CY13 and CY14 is not compelling...

I am writing this post during midnight after I came across a report saying that Bank Islam chief economist suspended after predicting that opposition will win the upcoming election. As usual, Finance Malaysia would NOT include political elements in its blog post. And, we would like to stress here again, that we are discussing this topic WITHOUT any political elements. Then, what are we talking here? FREEDOM of VOICE & OPINION I knew that I could not sleep if I didn't speak up for En. Azrul Anwar. We are not here to defend anyone, neither to offend any parties. But, we should open up our mind, and accept other opinions with open heart. In this matter, the said bank is losing its credibility and reputation by suspending one of its key staff --- just because of his prediction. Why can't he speak freely? Will the bank lose its banking license because of this? Does he answer the question wrongly? NO... It's a prediction only, there is no right or wrong here. Everyone knew t...

General election is around the corner. External environment was not so promising, following the no ending of European debt crisis, world economic slowdown, and recent tension between China and Japan. I believe all of these would be some key factors being taking into consideration to formulate the Malaysia Budget 2013. Goodies? Bonus? Cash handout? Themed as " Prospering The Nation, Enhancing Well-Being of the Rakyat: A Promise Fulfilled ". Our prime minister, who is also Finance Minister, tabled the 2013 Budget at Dewan Rakyat yesterday. Over here, Finance Malaysia blog would only touches on some key points: Economic growth projected to expand between 4.5% - 5.5% Federal Government's revenue in 2013 is estimated to increase to RM208.6 billion Continuation of BR1M of RM500 to households earning not more than RM3,000 a month and also extended the aid to cover a payment of RM250 for single unmarried individuals aged 21 and above, earnings not more than RM2,000 a month RM 1...

In our view, the equity market will likely be stuck in a range-bound trading pattern for now, but will likely trend up as global economic uncertainties clear out towards the later part of the year. Investors’ key worries include : worsening of the euro-debt crisis that remains unresolved fears of China’s and India’s economies crashing down into a hard landing ; and the risk of US falling off the “ fiscal  cliff ”. External Volatility And Impending Election 2 Key Headwinds On the home front, the major event to watch out for is the impending general election that could also create volatility to the local bourse given the uncertain election outcome. Nevertheless, we believe the market will eventually trend higher towards end-2012, premised on: the ECB making a more decisive move to mutualise the debts of Eurozone governments; China policymakers ease policies substantially and its economic growth re-accelerates; US Congressional leaders co...

Lately, there was a slew of divestment by Khazanah Nasional Bhd (Investment arm of Malaysia Government). And, the most recent one was the divestment of Proton stakes to DRB-Hicom. But, the strange part was DRB-Hicom was the winning bidder for Khazanah's stake in POS Malaysia last year too. Questions have been pouring in to Finance Malaysia regarding this issue, such as, are there any linkages between the two national deals? Other than DRB-Hicom, there was none other better suitors? As such, we would like to give our opinion on this matter. (Just for your reading pleasure) You have the Questions, We have the Answers First, both POS and Proton were considered as " sunset " companies in their respective industry. Both were not managed well and fallen from their glamorous days. Just as many investors written them off from investment radar, DRB-Hicom comes into the picture. Frankly speaking, the only asset both companies have was Government's backing. While POS has the mo...

After looking into all those research reports on 2012 market outlook by local securities or research houses, it's time for foreign research houses. In this series of 2012 outlook, we kick start with Credit Suisse 's report, in which a section of it was written specifically on Malaysia. And, below is the excerpt from it. Malaysia’s GDP growth to outperform its regional peers'? Real GDP growth expanded 5.8% yoy in Q3, led by strong private consumption (7.4% yoy) and fixed investment (6.1% yoy), and a surge in government consumption (21.8% yoy). On a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that GDP expanded 4.6% qoq annualized in Q3, stronger than that of Korea, Thailand, Singapore, the  Philippines, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Malaysia remains highly exposed to a sharp slowdown in the developed world, but, on a relative basis, we think its domestic demand will hold up better than that of the other small open economies in the region. We expect private consumpt...

2011 had triggered a wave of unwanted chain effects, which would not languish but resonate further into 1H12. While Japan is recovering from the worst ever tsunami and nuclear disaster, and oil prices stabilized after the unrest in the Middle East, conditions in Europe are expected to worsen before stabilizing. Global Economy – Risk Factors Extending into 2012 Positive news flows on drastic measures to restore confidence in Europe and maintain the credit ratings of core economies could boost market sentiment in early 1Q12 and push the index to test the all‐time high of 1,597. However, the reality check on the implication of European austerity measures and rising market risk premium due to the 13th General Election (GE) could push the index around 1,200 levels in 1H12 based on a minus two standard deviation from its last decade’s historical mean of 16.6x. A revival should ensue in the following months due to oversold conditions and anticipation of a subseque...

As we head into 2012, a lot of uncertainty remains. On the external front, the euro-debt crisis remains unresolved despite five major attempts to stabilise it. Meanwhile, the economic conditions in the Eurozone are deteriorating rapidly with major indicators pointing to the region entering a recession. A deeper-than-expected recession in the Eurozone would leave few countries unscathed. In particular, the US economy, which is still in low gear, will likely be severely impacted, while China may also be in for a more severe downturn as effects of potential policy easing will take time to filter down to the real economy. Slower Eonomic Growth Envisaged For 2012? The Malaysian economy will not be spared and will likely experience slowing export growth, though this will be cushioned by resilient domestic demand given the progress in the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme. We expect the country’s economic growth to slow do...

During the recent Budget 2012 announcement, one of the controversial issue is the increment of 1% contributed by employers to EPF effective 1st January 2012. This will bring the minimum contribution rate by employers to 13% from 12% currently for those earning less than RM5,000 per month. The Fatter EPF While employees are welcoming the new rules, many employers are voicing out their concern on the extra burden being bear by them. "This is not fair to us, especially during current scenario where businesses are bracing for more challenging times ahead", says one of the concerned boss. Although there is some sort of tax-relief for employers who contribute more, bosses are still unsatisfied by the new ruling which adds to their fixed costs. What is the rationale behind? The reason is somewhat very good, that is "to equip Malaysians more retirement funds for their golden age" after recent facts shown that Malaysian generally fully utilized their EPF monies between 3-10...