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Just when the whole world coming for a rout, only US treasury yields shoot up to multi-months high. Investors might wondering why this happen. Some of our readers are posting these kind of question to us. We think this article might helps. US Treasury = US Government Bond Actually, we are referring to US Government 10 Years Bond. Generally, a government bond is issued by a national government (in this case US) and is denominated in the country's own currency (USD). Bonds issued by national government in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid. Also, government bonds were usually referred to as risk-free bonds , because governments could easily devalue their currencies or raise taxes to redeem the bond at maturity.  The Story of US Treasury Yields... Just like Base-Lending-Rate (BLR) for Malaysia, everything from mortgag...

Global shares tumbles to multi-months low, especially in Asia whom did well year-to-date thanks to Japan's Abenomics. Commodities and gold also can't spare from the bearish sentiment across investment markets. Reason? US Federal Reserve may stop/scaling down their bond-purchase program. Huh!!! Is this the real reason? Like what I always said, analysts always give a reason for whatever bull or bear markets (after it had happen). For me, the main reason was (again) profit-taking activities took place in view of the good performances during first half of this year. How about Federal Reserve's QE ? It's funny to blame Federal Reserve for the corrections. First, why Fed want to stop QE at the first place? It's because US economy is recovering well. Wasn't this a good news to global markets? Definitely. Then, why we're so fear if Fed stop QE ? Doesn't make sense, right? Anyway, like what I said, the real reason was profit-taking activities which is normal af...

When everyone thought that US and the world will be better if Obama won his presidential re-election again, world equities markets today declines with US being the most serious market by dropping more than 2%. What's the reason? Answer: Fiscal Cliff  ? Hmmm... Then, what is fiscal cliff actually which many of us on the street do not even heard about this new term before. No worry, Finance Malaysia blog did his homework over here. Share this out if you like. Understanding Fiscal Cliff... The US fiscal cliff refers to the effect of a series of enacted legislation which, if unchanged, will result in tax increases, spending cuts, and a corresponding reduction in the budget deficit. With Obama retaining the presidency, it sends the signal that it's US government policies will pretty much stay the same as previous 4 years. Ben Bernanke will stay as Fed chairman, which also meaning that the open-ended liquidity and bond buying programs will continue, fueling risk taking appetite of e...

After months of buildup, Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis has finally wreaked havoc on the U.S. stock market, as a wave of anxiety has prompted a major sell-off on Wall Street. We’ve seen a dramatically “risk off” environment with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 3.52% — the biggest one-week decline since November — and the S&P 500 falling 4.3% . Among the hardest hit stocks were small caps and tech, with the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite falling 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively. To further underscore the risk-off environment, the yield on the 10-year Treasury still appears to be searching for a bottom, finishing at 1.702%, but falling below 1.700% intraday this week — a modern-era low. Spring Swoon? History may not be repeating itself, but it certainly is rhyming. Like the spring of 2010 and the spring of 2011, investors’ fears are coming to fruition and we are once again experiencing a “spring swoon.” Stocks a...

Titled " Perilous Crossroads; Challenging Times Ahead " RHB Research painted a not so rosy 4Q2011 outlook for KLCI. Undeniably, our market are in for a turbulent times and we do not know how the year will be ended. Bear or Bull market? Below is the excerpt from the said report: ~ The US economic recovery has slowed to a crawl, while Europe is not just lurching from one crisis to another, it is lurching into a new one before the previous one is solved. There is growing risk that sustained weak confidence could exert downward pressure on demand and business activity worldwide. ~ Nevertheless, " double-dip " recession can still be avoided if political leaders get their acts together fast enough to contain the debt crises and avert a contagion given that global trade has not fallen off the cliff. ~ On the home front, we expect the Government to speed up the implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme, which coupled with resilient consumer spending, will prov...

We cannot deny that we are in for another round of hard times since 2008 global financial crisis. Some experts are saying that we are facing the Great Depression wave coming in the next few months, if no concrete efforts put in by global leaders. Meanwhile, some experts think that opportunities arises again and put off the double-dip recession speculation. The downgrading of US's AAA rating re-ignite the fears over the sustainability of its sovereign debt. However, please be mindful that US rating remains extremely sound and reflecting a very low risk of default in the long term, still. USD remain the preferred and most widely traded currency in the foreseeable future, and there is no reason to worry about. Sovereign Risk scaring investors away? Meanwhile, in Eurozone, the situation remains very complex and greater political will is needed to maintain Euro as regional currency. Between Eurozone breaking up and resolving the situation, which one is easier? Of course, the economic ...

On Sept 7, J.P.Morgan came out a report titled "Global Markets Outlook and Strategy". Here, we would like to share the equity strategy written, which we think is the most sought after reference for investors to strategize during this uncertain times. Below is the excerpt from the said report: "We believe perceptions of a US recession will continue to weigh on equity markets and we thus keep a low amount of risk in our equity portfolio and reduce beta to negative." "The most likely positive catalyst for equity markets in the near term lies with US economic data. This is not happening yet. Our US Economic Activity Surprises Index remains in negative territory, where it has been for 5 straight months (Chart 1). We need to see this index moving to positive territory, and US economic data surprising on the upside, for equity markets to sustain a recovery." 2 reasons why Under-performance The August market slump saw emerging market (EM) equities and small caps u...

The news that S&P downgrading US credit rating shows that rating agencies are doing their job fairly. Previously, rating agencies were blamed by Greece and Europe countries for downgrading their ratings when Greece facing rising debt issue. Though, US did not spare this round when S&P downgrade US AAA rating to AA+ (one notch lower). What would be the implications? Normally, the downgraded currency will slump, sovereign bonds will become less attractive by carrying higher degree of risk, hence pushing up the yields. Does US follow these theory? NO. Why US is different? USD will not fall much like Euro. First, USD is one of the safest asset, along with gold, during economic uncertainties. That's why USD was chosen as the world's most widely traded currency. During uncertainties (like now), investors are scare and they pull-out from equities around the world. But, where did they put the cash? USD is the answer mainly because it is widely used globally and of high liqu...

Deadline gets closer and closer, yet US have not come out a concrete solution to calm the world. Whether tax increases should be included in a deficit reduction agreement or not, both Democrats and Republicans are standing firm without compromise. Republicans insist that any deal to cut deficits should involve spending cuts only while Democrats have been demanding both spending cuts and tax increases. Although Finance Malaysia reckons that the Congress would pass the bill to increase debt ceiling, let us analyzed and prepare for the unfortunate outcome. What if the debt ceiling limit is not raised by 2nd August? US bondholders will get paid first, while other payments such as social security, military payment, and Medicare services will stall. Downgrading by rating agencies is unavoidable, which will lead to an increase in Treasury's borrowing costs. US will be losing its AAA ratings , damaging the important role of USD as one of the world's preferred currency. USD will slump t...

Failed to be Warren Buffett? How about exposing to the performance of his investment company, Berkshire Hathaway? Not a bad idea though. The latest fund, launched by OSK-UOB, aims to provide capital appreciation over the short-term ( 18 months ) whilst aiming to preserve investors' capital on the Maturity date. This is not a capital guaranteed or protected fund. This is a wholesale fund which was structured to capitalize on the performance of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., such that the positive performance of the company and its out-performance against the Standard and Poor's 500 Index will provide the fund with returns during the recovery and rebuilding of the US economy. Structure... The fund will invest 100% of its NAV in a non-capital protected RM denominated structured investment issued by a domestically incorporated financial institution with a rating of at least 'A' by RAM Rating Services Berhad or its equivalent rating by any other reputable rating agency. The Struc...

Yet, another US fund is in town now. More and more new fund is focusing on the US market, given its relatively attractive valuations currently after the 2008 global financial crisis. If you want to invest in US market, you may consider this fund which is managed by the US "tai-ko" - Goldman Sachs. The fund's objective is to seek to achieve long-term capital appreciation through investment in a collective investment scheme, which invests primarily in securities of United States of America companies. This a feeder fund, where 95% of the fund's NAV will feed into the Goldman Sachs US Equity Portfolio (Target Fund). Information of the Target Fund The Target Fund is a portfolio of Goldman Sachs Funds, a public limited company qualifying as an investment company organized with variable share capital, in which Goldman Sachs Asset Management International is the investment manager of the fund. The Target Fund is domiciled in Luxembourg and denominated in USD and regulated ...

Indeed, there is a insightful write-up by RHB Research today on the US housing market. People are still very curious about the US housing market, but yet to have the courage to BUY . Herd mentality? And, why US housing market is catching the attention of the world? Oh, thanks to Rich Dad Poor Dad , and the world famous property tycoon, Donald Trump . In fact, I am wondering how did Donald fares these few years? That's why Donald had teamed up with Robert Kiyosaki to publish a book last year? People stop buying property because they're buying books nowadays? A Double-Dip in the US Housing Market? ... by RHB Research (30 March 2011) US home prices, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas, declined by 0.2% mom in January vs -0.4% in December, and dipped for the 7th straight month to the lowest since April 2009. Year-on-year, home prices in 20 major cities fell by a larger magnitude of 3.1% in January, the 4th consecutive month of decline ...

Forget about supply and demand issue of commodity, everyone knows the main mover now is Emerging Market, especially China. As long as US economy not yet recovered, China was expected to continue its great appetite to consume commodities globally. Not for its consumptions, but mainly because of China's currency management. China, already the largest creditor of US by holding USD which was slipping with a series of quantitative easing programs, would definitely forced China to diversify its holding elsewhere. However, China would hand-picking according to its own local demand. As such, Finance Malaysia forecasts those commodities which were used heavily in construction , infrastructure , production will continue to perform in 2011.   Top pick #1: Palladium One in four goods manufactured today either contain platinum group metals or the platinum group metals play a major role during their manufacturing process. Palladium was used in many electronics including computers, mobile phones,...

Following the US government pump priming efforts during the global financial crisis, OSK-UOB believe that we are now witnessing the US economy being stabilized and poised for economic recovery albeit at its early stage. Henceforth, they offer investors a US-focused equity fund to capitalize on the US economic recovery. Tag-line: " It is PRIME time to up your STAKES " This is a feeder fund that will invest principally in Schroder International Selection Fund US Small & Mid-Cap Equity (launched on 10/12/2004), which invests primarily in equity securities of smaller and medium-sized US companies. Those are the US companies which, at the time of purchase, form the bottom 40% by market capitalization of the US market. Key Summary Fund category           : Feeder Fund Fund type                 : Growth Initial offering period : 15th Oct - 4 Nov 2010 Initia...

Yet, another capital protected fund will be launched by OSK-UOB investment bank. The 3-year closed-end capital-protected fund is aiming to provide investors regular income over the medium term. The theme for this fund is "US Recovery". The fund will be offer for subscription from May 10 to June 23. The fund's principal strategy is to invest 87% to 93% in zero-coupon negotiable instruments of deposits (ZNIDs) to accord the capital protection and the remainder in a 3-year over-the-counter US option. Min. Initial Investment : Rm1000